Anchorage, Alaska — Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy is quietly preparing for one of the most consequential political battles in the state’s modern history: a 2028 U.S. Senate race against incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski.
According to multiple sources close to the governor who spoke with Fox News, Dunleavy has made up his mind to challenge Murkowski, a moderate Republican who has repeatedly clashed with former President Donald Trump. If true, this development sets the stage for a showdown that could reshape Alaska’s political future while sending shockwaves through the Republican Party at the national level.
Murkowski Versus Dunleavy: A Clash of Styles and Loyalties
Lisa Murkowski has long been known as one of the Senate’s most independent Republicans. Over the course of her career, she has broken with her party on issues ranging from abortion rights to climate policy to judicial confirmations. While this independence has earned her support from moderates and Democrats in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, it has also put her at odds with conservative voters and Trump loyalists.
Her vote to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial in 2021 remains one of her most controversial decisions, drawing the ire of the former president and his base. Trump has repeatedly called for Murkowski’s defeat and openly courted potential challengers.
By contrast, Governor Mike Dunleavy has built his political career on a close alliance with Trump. Since endorsing him early in the 2016 campaign, Dunleavy has remained one of Trump’s most consistent allies, frequently traveling the 3,500 miles from Juneau to Washington to meet with him at the White House.
“He’s not about cocktail parties or cameras,” one source close to the governor said. “He’s about getting things done. But he knows that if you want to shape national policy, you need to be in Washington.”
Completing His Term Before Making the Jump
Dunleavy, who began his second term as governor in 2022, reportedly has no intention of resigning early to pursue the Senate seat.
“He’s not going to quit his term,” a longtime aide explained. “The last governor who did that was Sarah Palin, and she never recovered politically. Dunleavy knows better.”
Palin’s decision to step down in 2009 while under national scrutiny effectively ended her trajectory as a leading Republican figure. Dunleavy, sources say, wants to avoid repeating that mistake. Instead, he intends to serve out his time as governor, while laying the groundwork for a Senate campaign that could begin in earnest by 2027.
A Governor Who Shuns the Spotlight
Dunleavy has often avoided Washington’s political theatrics, preferring to focus on delivering tangible results for Alaska. Supporters credit him with strengthening the state’s energy industry, managing its budget during turbulent times, and maintaining strong ties to rural communities.
“He’s not an ego guy,” one supporter said. “He doesn’t chase the spotlight. But he’s shown that he can handle tough decisions, and that’s what people respect about him.”
Still, Dunleavy’s decision to seriously consider a Senate run highlights a shift in his political strategy. While he has often expressed his preference for Alaska’s rugged wilderness over Washington’s concrete corridors, he now appears to recognize that representing the state at the national level is the next logical step.
Trump’s Encouragement
Dunleavy’s reported Senate ambitions are not happening in a vacuum. Trump himself has urged the Alaska governor to run, according to people familiar with their conversations.
“Trump has talked to him about running and wants him to run,” one insider revealed.
That encouragement was underscored when Dunleavy attended Trump’s high-profile August 15, 2025, meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage. While the gathering drew international attention, Dunleavy’s presence signaled his role as one of Trump’s closest allies in the state.
Alaska’s Unpredictable Political Landscape
Despite its conservative lean, Alaska’s politics are notoriously unpredictable. The state’s adoption of ranked-choice voting in 2020 has dramatically reshaped campaigns. Candidates must now appeal not only to their base but also to a broader coalition of voters to survive multiple rounds of vote redistribution.
This system played a decisive role in Murkowski’s 2022 reelection. Despite strong opposition from Trump and Alaska’s Republican Party, she secured enough crossover support from independents and Democrats to hold her seat.
For Dunleavy, this presents both opportunities and challenges. His strong connection to Trump ensures a loyal base of Republican support, but he would also need to attract second-choice votes from independents and moderates to overcome Murkowski’s advantage in a ranked-choice runoff.
Murkowski’s Record and Resilience
Over the years, Murkowski has proven adept at surviving political challenges. In 2010, after losing the Republican primary to Tea Party challenger Joe Miller, she mounted a historic write-in campaign and won reelection — the first U.S. senator to do so since 1954.
Her resilience, combined with her ability to appeal to Alaska’s diverse electorate, makes her a formidable opponent. Critics often underestimate her political skills, but her record shows she thrives in unconventional battles.
Still, her estrangement from the Republican base and her frequent clashes with Trump leave her vulnerable in a head-to-head contest against a well-organized, Trump-backed challenger.
The National Stakes
The potential Dunleavy-Murkowski showdown carries implications beyond Alaska.
- For Trump: It offers an opportunity to unseat one of his fiercest Republican critics and replace her with a loyal ally, strengthening his influence in the Senate.
- For Republicans: The race could highlight the party’s internal divide between moderates and Trump-aligned conservatives.
- For Democrats: A bruising Republican primary could open the door for a Democratic challenger to compete in Alaska — though history suggests it would remain an uphill battle.
With the Senate often decided by razor-thin margins, even a single seat in a small state like Alaska could tip the balance of power.
A Governor With National Ambitions
Though Dunleavy has shied away from the spotlight, his steady rise through Alaska politics suggests he has been preparing for a larger stage. His background as an educator, state senator, and now two-term governor gives him a strong résumé. His alignment with Trump ensures him national conservative backing, which would bring both funding and media attention.
“He’s not someone who jumps into things lightly,” a source close to the governor said. “But he sees this as the moment where he can really make a difference for Alaska and for the country.”
Conclusion
If Governor Mike Dunleavy follows through on his plans to challenge Senator Lisa Murkowski in 2028, Alaska could become the site of one of the most closely watched Senate races in the nation.
The contest would not only pit two very different visions of Republican leadership against each other but also test the future of ranked-choice voting in a high-stakes environment. For Trump and his supporters, it would represent a chance to oust one of his most vocal Republican opponents. For Murkowski, it would be another chapter in her long history of defying political odds.
As the 2028 election cycle slowly comes into view, all eyes will turn north to the Last Frontier, where the clash between Murkowski and Dunleavy could shape not only Alaska’s future but also the trajectory of the Republican Party itself.