Commentary
A new Rasmussen Reports survey has delivered a political win for President Donald Trump, showing that a clear majority of likely voters back his call for a new national census — one that excludes illegal immigrants. The numbers underscore a shifting national sentiment on immigration, representation, and the accuracy of federal data at a time when border security remains the defining issue of American politics.
Voters Approve of Trump’s Proposal by a Wide Margin
According to the poll, 57% of likely voters approve of Trump’s proposal for a new census. That includes a significant 36% who “strongly approve.”
Only 34% disapprove, with 24% strongly opposed.
When the question became more specific — asking whether illegal immigrants should be excluded from the population count — the public still sided with Trump:
- 52% said illegal immigrants should not be counted
- 36% disagreed
- 11% remained unsure
These figures reflect a political reality that Democrats will not want to confront: the electorate is increasingly skeptical of including non-citizens in population counts that determine federal funding and congressional seats.
Support for Exclusion Spans Parties — But With Sharp Contrasts
Among voters who say illegal immigrants should not be included in the census:
- 83% of Republicans approve of Trump’s proposed census redo
- 43% of Democrats approve
- 49% of unaffiliated voters approve
Even within the Democratic Party, nearly half of voters support some form of exclusion.
Rasmussen also highlighted the stark contrast between 2024 voting blocs:
- 70% of Trump voters oppose counting illegal immigrants
- 52% of Harris voters say illegal immigrants should be counted
This divide reflects broader fault lines that shaped the 2024 campaign — particularly the clash between Trump’s hardline immigration vision and the Democratic Party’s expansionist policy framework.
Trump Calls for a “New Census” — And Breaks with 235 Years of Practice
Trump stunned political observers last week when he announced that he had ordered his administration to “immediately begin work” on what he called a “new” census — one that would exclude millions of migrants living in the country without legal permission.
Such a shift would be unprecedented. Since the very first census in 1790, every person residing in the United States — regardless of immigration status — has been counted. Trump’s proposal would be the first major structural change in the methodology in more than two centuries.
In his social media post, Trump framed the move as necessary to restore fairness:
“Using the results and information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024, we will build a more accurate census that reflects the true American population.”
The reference to election data raised questions that the White House did not clarify. The administration has not yet released procedural details.
White House Silent — Commerce Department Signals Technological Upgrades
The White House declined to respond to media requests about how a revised census would be conducted or legally justified.
The Commerce Department did, however, release a brief statement:
“The Census Bureau will immediately adopt modern technology tools for use in the Census to better capture, analyze, and secure population data.”
While vague, the wording suggests that internal planning has already begun, even as legal challenges loom.
Democrats Furious — But Out of Step with Voters
Democratic leadership has already condemned Trump’s proposal, framing it as an attempt to undercount minority communities and shift political power away from urban centers. But this new polling places Democrats in an uncomfortable position: the American public is not with them.
For decades, Democrats have benefited from population-based apportionment that counts non-citizens, boosting representation in states like:
- California
- New York
- Illinois
- New Jersey
- Texas (primarily Democratic regions)
Removing illegal immigrants from the count could redistribute congressional seats away from deep-blue strongholds and toward states with more restrictive immigration laws.
This demographic reality explains the fierce political resistance — but the polling suggests Democrats have overplayed their hand.
Why Voters Support a Migrant-Free Census
Analysts believe several factors are driving the majority support:
- Record-breaking illegal immigration numbers since 2021
- Perceptions of strain on public services, schools, and hospitals
- Concerns that non-citizens are influencing political representation
- A belief that counting illegal immigrants incentivizes more unlawful entry
- Post-2024 election focus on immigration as America’s top issue
Trump’s framing — that “Americans deserve a census that counts Americans” — has resonated strongly with the electorate.
Legal Challenges Are Guaranteed
Constitutional scholars widely expect lawsuits, arguing that the 14th Amendment requires counting “persons,” not “citizens.”
However, Trump’s legal team may argue that the executive branch has discretion over methodology, especially when addressing national security, fraud prevention, and the integrity of electoral representation.
A legal showdown appears unavoidable.
Political Implications: A Massive Advantage for the GOP
If Trump were to succeed — even partially — the effect on federal power dynamics would be enormous.
- Blue states would likely lose House seats
- Red and swing states would gain representation
- Federal funding formulas would shift dramatically
- Electoral College allocation could change
In other words: this is not just about numbers. It’s about political power.
And the American public, at least for now, appears ready to back Trump.