Donald Trump is known for making promises that seem too good to be true. Yet even by his lofty standards the recent pledge to give tens of millions of Americans a $2,000 dividend from what he claimed was tariff revenue is eyebrow-raising.
The long and short of it is that Trump says the implementation of his tariff scheme has worked so spectacularly well that the US government has enough spare money to hand out a surprise bonus to half the population.
“A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Sunday.
But here’s where it gets unfortunately sticky. In the post in question, Trump neglected to elaborate on a potential timeline for the payout, nor did he state exactly who would and wouldn’t be eligible for the dividend, aside from referring to ‘high income people’.
“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER,” Trump wrote of his tariffs.
“We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place.”
Analysts, however, have highlighted potential problems in Trump’s grand plan. Firstly, such a payment could cost between $300 billion and $513 billion, depending on whether children count and which adults are eligible.
Economist Erica York wrote: “If the cutoff is $100,000, 150M adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. … Adjusting for that, tariffs have raised $90 billion of net revenues compared to Trump’s proposed $300 billion rebate.”
Yes, you did read correctly. Using the above calculations, Trump’s rebate would actually cost the US over three times more than what his tariffs have generated.
Not only that, but the tariffs themselves are facing legal challenges.
Recently, the Supreme Court of the United States heard arguments in cases challenging the president’s use of emergency‐powers law to implement the tariffs. Three lower courts already ruled the approach illegal, and if the tariffs collapse in court, any planned or perceived system resulting in a payout would disappear.
Which is to say that any dividend at all (let alone one to the tune of $2000) is not even close to being concrete yet. Rather, it seems like there are a lot of things that would have to happen before it’s remotely possible.
In any case, there is a group that won’t be too bothered either way, and that’s those who find themselves excluded from eligibility for such a government payout. While Trump was suspiciously vague on just about every aspect of his promise, he did say that ‘high income people’ wouldn’t be able to benefit from it.
Where he/they draw the line with regards to what constitutes ‘high income’ remains to be seen, but it’s probably a safer bet not to expect $2000 to magically appear in your account at all moving forward.
What do we think, folks? Is Trump going to deliver $2000 for the majority of Americans? Or is this just a promise consisting of hot air? Let us know in the comments box.