A new round of 2028 polling has landed — and for Republicans who still dream of pulling the party back to a pre-Trump era, the results could not be more discouraging. The latest Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll from the New Hampshire Institute of Politics shows Vice President JD Vance not just leading the GOP field, but absolutely crushing it.
If the New Hampshire Republican primary were held today, according to the survey, Vance would walk away with the nomination in a landslide. And the message from voters is unmistakable: the MAGA movement is not fading, moderating, softening, or retreating. It is solidifying — and JD Vance is the clear heir to the mantle heading into 2028.
How the Poll Was Conducted
The survey sampled 2,112 registered voters in New Hampshire between November 18 and 19, 2025, using randomly selected cell phone numbers aligned with the state’s demographic profile. With a reported ±2.1% margin of error, this is not some tiny, low-confidence poll. It’s large, detailed, and unmistakably clear in its results.
When voters were asked a straightforward question — If the 2028 New Hampshire primary were held today, who would get your vote? — JD Vance dominated with 57% support, far ahead of any other Republican contender.
And among Democrats, the race itself is fractured, with Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom still battling for relevance — a stark contrast to the overwhelming unity on the Republican side.
The Numbers Tell a Story — And It’s a Familiar One
New Hampshire has long been a politically independent state — famously unpredictable, stubbornly contrarian, and often willing to defy the expectations of political insiders. Yet in this poll, the message from the state’s Republican voters is not murky or complicated. It is loud, unified, and unmistakable:
JD Vance is the future of the party.
Whether the GOP establishment likes it or not.
For years now, certain Republican strategists, legacy-media pundits, and former Bush-era officials have pushed the idea that the party must distance itself from Donald Trump and return to what they affectionately call “norms,” “respectability,” or “traditional conservatism.” But the data — not the wishful thinking — continues to reject that premise.
New Hampshire Republicans appear unbothered by the constant media attacks on Trump, unpersuaded by the warnings of political scientists, and unimpressed with the predictable talking points from traditional GOP commentators. Instead, a significant majority are siding with Trump’s chosen successor, a populist figure who has embraced the MAGA platform while giving it a younger, more polished, and more intellectual face.
Why Vance Is Resonating
JD Vance’s rise has not happened in a vacuum. Several factors explain his dominance:
1. He represents continuity without stagnation.
Vance is unmistakably aligned with Donald Trump — ideologically, stylistically, and strategically — but he brings his own distinct identity. Voters who want the movement to continue see him as a natural extension rather than a departure.
2. His appeal spans multiple factions of the modern GOP.
Vance appeals to:
- Trump loyalists
- Working-class conservatives
- Voters skeptical of endless foreign entanglements
- Younger Republicans tired of the old guard
His combination of economic populism, cultural conservatism, and political sharpness is hitting a sweet spot.
3. He does not trigger the same intensity of opposition Trump does among some undecided Republicans.
This matters in primaries. There are voters who like Trump’s policies but are worn out by the chaos and controversy. Vance offers them a familiar platform with a steadier presentation.
4. His national visibility as vice president has normalized him.
Unlike other rising stars who must fight for attention, Vance benefits from daily exposure, interviews, speeches, and coverage. That kind of presence makes him feel inevitable to GOP voters.
Who Isn’t Connecting — and Why
Though the survey did not list every candidate’s numbers in detail, the headline tells the story: 57% for Vance leaves the other potential contenders — establishment Republicans, moderates, neoconservative throwbacks — in political dust.
Candidates who have floated runs or been mentioned as alternatives either lack grassroots enthusiasm or are relying too heavily on donor-class support. The GOP electorate has changed dramatically over the past decade, and candidates who fail to understand that shift are falling further and further behind.
Some former Bush-style Republicans want to return to:
- aggressive foreign policy
- corporate-friendly economics
- and softer cultural messaging
But GOP voters have made it clear those ideas are relics of another era.
Democrats Aren’t in Much Better Shape
While Republicans are consolidating around JD Vance, Democrats are fractured between Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom, neither of whom has been able to unite the party’s left-wing factions, moderates, and increasingly disillusioned voters.
Some Democrats want a fresh face. Others want a more aggressively progressive candidate. Still others want a centrist. The confusion reflects a party with an identity crisis — the opposite of what the Republican numbers show.
The longer this division remains unresolved, the more advantages Republicans carry into 2028.
Why New Hampshire Matters
New Hampshire is small in population but gigantic in influence. A commanding lead there:
- builds national momentum
- attracts donor confidence
- legitimizes candidacies
- and pressures weaker candidates to drop out early
If JD Vance is already over 57% this early — nearly three years before the election — it indicates something far greater than routine early polling noise.
It signals that Vance is not just a likely frontrunner.
He is potentially unbeatable unless the political landscape shifts dramatically.
The GOP’s Post-Trump Identity Is No Longer a Question
For years, political analysts insisted the GOP would eventually “snap back” to its pre-2016 identity. They predicted Trump was a “temporary phenomenon,” a “symptom of voter anger,” or a “protest vote gone wrong.”
But now, nearly a decade after Trump’s first election, the data continues to show:
- The movement wasn’t temporary.
- It wasn’t accidental.
- It has staying power — and successors.
JD Vance’s rise in New Hampshire is not an outlier. It’s the latest confirmation of a long-term realignment.
Final Takeaway
This poll doesn’t simply show JD Vance leading. It shows him dominating.
It shows a GOP electorate unified behind a single direction — and a single successor.
It shows the Republican establishment losing ground, not gaining it.
And perhaps most importantly:
It shows that the MAGA era is far from over.
In fact, according to New Hampshire voters, it’s just getting started.