Law and order is making a comeback in the United States — and so is President Donald Trump.
After years of rising crime, chaotic urban streets, and ideological experiments that left communities paying the price, Americans are finally seeing something they were told was impossible: a dramatic, nationwide decline in murders. And it’s happening fast.
According to new crime data analyzed by respected crime analyst Jeff Asher, the United States is on track to experience the largest single-year drop in murders ever recorded — a stunning reversal that coincides directly with Trump’s return to the White House and his administration’s renewed emphasis on enforcement, accountability, and unapologetic support for law enforcement.
The numbers are not subtle. They are not marginal. And they are not easy to explain away.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Asher, who compiles and analyzes national crime data using the Real Time Crime Index — a comprehensive dataset pulling monthly figures from hundreds of law enforcement agencies nationwide — reported that murders have dropped nearly 20 percent from 2024 to 2025.
To put that in perspective:
- From 2023 to 2024, murders fell by 13.1 percent, a decline that many experts already considered historically significant.
- From 2024 to 2025, that decline has accelerated to nearly 20 percent, placing the current year on track to break all modern records for a single-year drop in homicides.
This isn’t a statistical blip. It’s a trend — and it’s happening across major cities, suburbs, and smaller jurisdictions alike.
In other words, this is not just one city cleaning up its act. It’s a national shift.
The Timing Is Impossible to Ignore
The decline began almost immediately after Trump returned to office and began implementing policies that had been shelved or outright rejected during the previous administration.
Those policies included:
- Restoring full federal backing for police departments
- Expanding federal-state coordination against violent offenders
- Reinstating tough sentencing guidance for repeat violent criminals
- Targeting gangs, drug traffickers, and illegal firearms networks
- Ending DOJ-era consent decree pressure that discouraged proactive policing
Critics may dislike Trump. They may oppose his rhetoric. They may resent his refusal to adopt the language of progressive criminal justice activism.
But even they are struggling to explain why murder rates are collapsing under his leadership — especially after years of being told that enforcement “doesn’t work.”
A Sharp Reversal From the Previous Era
The contrast with the years preceding Trump’s return could not be more stark.
From 2020 through 2023, many major cities experienced historic surges in violent crime, driven by a toxic mix of factors:
- Anti-police rhetoric that emboldened criminals
- Prosecutors declining to charge violent offenders
- Bail reforms that put repeat criminals back on the street
- Reduced police staffing and morale
- Political leaders more concerned with activist approval than public safety
Americans were told this was the price of “reimagining” justice.
They were told rising murders were inevitable. Structural. Beyond control.
They were told enforcement was racist, outdated, and ineffective.
Now, with those theories collapsing under the weight of reality, the same voices are suddenly quiet.
What Trump Did Differently
Trump did not invent law enforcement. He didn’t rewrite criminology textbooks. He did something far more basic — and far more controversial in elite circles.
He enforced the law.
From day one of his return, Trump made it clear that violent crime would no longer be tolerated, excused, or explained away by sociology lectures.
His administration:
- Directed federal agencies to prioritize violent crime over political signaling
- Empowered U.S. attorneys to aggressively prosecute gun crimes
- Expanded task forces targeting fentanyl distribution and cartel-linked violence
- Increased cooperation with local police departments rather than undermining them
- Publicly defended officers instead of scapegoating them
This sent a message — not just to law enforcement, but to criminals.
And criminals, unlike pundits, respond to incentives.
Deterrence Still Works — Despite What We Were Told
For years, Americans were told deterrence was a myth. That criminals don’t think rationally. That punishment doesn’t influence behavior.
Yet the data now tells a very different story.
When:
- Arrests increase
- Prosecution becomes predictable
- Sentences carry real consequences
- Police presence is visible and supported
Violent crime goes down.
This is not radical. It’s not ideological. It’s empirical.
The 2025 murder decline is not happening in spite of enforcement. It’s happening because of it.
Media Reluctance and Quiet Backtracking
Unsurprisingly, much of the legacy media has responded to this historic drop with discomfort.
Some outlets have downplayed the numbers. Others have attempted to attribute the decline to vague factors like “post-pandemic normalization” — despite the fact that violent crime spiked after pandemic restrictions eased.
Others have acknowledged the drop while carefully avoiding mention of Trump at all.
What they have not done is explain why similar declines did not occur under the policies they previously championed.
And that silence speaks volumes.
The Human Impact Behind the Statistics
Behind every percentage point in the murder rate are thousands of real lives not lost.
Children who will grow up with parents.
Parents who will not bury their sons.
Communities spared another candlelight vigil.
A 20 percent reduction in murders is not an abstraction. It represents thousands of Americans still alive today.
For families in high-crime neighborhoods — the very communities most often harmed by violent crime — this shift is life-changing.
And those communities, it should be noted, are often the same ones political activists claimed enforcement would hurt the most.
Law and Order Is Not a Partisan Concept
Trump’s critics often frame law and order as a right-wing obsession.
But safety is not ideological.
The right to walk down the street without fear is not conservative or progressive.
The right to let your children play outside is not partisan.
The right to expect violent criminals to be removed from society is not controversial to the people living with the consequences of crime.
Trump understood that instinctively — and acted accordingly.
The Question Going Forward
The real question now is not whether Trump’s approach works.
The data has answered that.
The question is whether future leaders will have the political courage to maintain it.
Will they:
- Stand with police when activists scream?
- Prosecute violent offenders even when headlines criticize?
- Admit that some ideas sounded compassionate but proved disastrous?
Or will they revert to policies that made American cities less safe — simply to appease ideological allies?
One Thing Is Clear
The United States is experiencing a historic drop in murders.
It is happening under Donald Trump.
And it is happening because law enforcement is once again allowed to do its job.
Americans were told this couldn’t happen.
They were wrong.
And for the families spared tragedy this year, that truth matters far more than any political argument ever could.